So the Fed decided to leave rates a-is, and the statement was more optimistic and positive than the last one, although still cautious. Good news and Asian and European shares are up, so US will likely follow Thursday, and lead to the predicted rally on Thursday, Friday and Possibly Monday and Tuesday, at which point seasonalities suggest there will be another dive until mid-February.
My TNA position gained back some 2.78%, and LBJ although down 1.9% during the day has shown a solid upward trend since the morning and recovered 2.12% in the after hours. 50-day MACD for TNA also looks better, since divergence decreased from 0.9 to 0.88 today, indicating to me atleast that there a reversal of the evil wave has started.
All in all looks like there is light at the end of the tunnel for my LBJ and TNA positions, however Financials and Healthcare may take a dive Thursday and introduce some drag.
We’ll see what happens. I want to close out my positions at a minimal profit (at least TNA by next Tuesday to bring my exposure back down) However if Thursday morning looks promising I may make few quick trades or pickup another $2,500 of TNA since I am very confident that Friday will be a good rally.
Thursday, January 28, 2010
Wednesday, January 27, 2010
The Descend Continues – January 26, 2010
The Russell 2k drop that started last Thursday continued today, and is most likely to continue tomorrow when Obama gives the state of the union address. One item that is expected to help is FOMC meetings conclusion to (hopefully) keep the rates down, but god knows what they will say…every word will be analyzed. If Obama is heavy on bank regulation market will likely take another dive the following day, meaning that the expected end-of-january rally will have no steam and gains if any will me marginal. This is not very inspiring considering that the market is expected to predominantly dive firs half of February.
My positions of LBJ and TNA continues to slide. TNA took another 2.54% hit today, LBJ lost another 3%. Not inspiring, and temptation to close out both is very strong. Here’s where I am:
230 shares of TNA down 10.53% ($1,091.00)
100 shares of LBJ down 25.92% ($973.99)
MACD chart for LBJ does however show that the plummet is about to flatten out, but I may be optimistic on this point, especially with Feb being a slow transitional month. TNA looks like it will keep sliding for another week. Although they are $2K down, I’m sticking to both positions.
What’s more frustrating is not being able to trade. There is a lot of volatility right now especially with FOMC and Obama news in the forecast and end of month volume, but I’m sticking to m strategy and keeping exposure limited to the $14-something thousand (now $12K). In the mean time making small advances in developing my market prediction engine: I decided to incorporate foreign indexes and am about to write daily download/data import automation.
Exciting times, but watching your positions slide sucks.
My positions of LBJ and TNA continues to slide. TNA took another 2.54% hit today, LBJ lost another 3%. Not inspiring, and temptation to close out both is very strong. Here’s where I am:
230 shares of TNA down 10.53% ($1,091.00)
100 shares of LBJ down 25.92% ($973.99)
MACD chart for LBJ does however show that the plummet is about to flatten out, but I may be optimistic on this point, especially with Feb being a slow transitional month. TNA looks like it will keep sliding for another week. Although they are $2K down, I’m sticking to both positions.
What’s more frustrating is not being able to trade. There is a lot of volatility right now especially with FOMC and Obama news in the forecast and end of month volume, but I’m sticking to m strategy and keeping exposure limited to the $14-something thousand (now $12K). In the mean time making small advances in developing my market prediction engine: I decided to incorporate foreign indexes and am about to write daily download/data import automation.
Exciting times, but watching your positions slide sucks.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Look At The Upcoming Week of Monday January 25,2010 and New Forecasting Developments
Although things are looking rather grim a the moment, last weeks slide will likely slow down around wednesday and thursday and friday should both show strong recovery. As should monday. This prediction is based exclusively on info from Stock Traders Almanac 2010. MACD also looks like it should start swinging back up in 7-8 days from the start fo the drop, which will place it right around the end of the upcoming week. So, I'd say if decline stops Tuesday and Wednesday, I will buy up TNA, is hopes of dumping it either Friday or Monday/Tuesday. Still doing some homework on good days to sell. I remember stock traders almanac mentioning Tuesday as being a money maker but have to double check, (STA also suggests that stocks will slide first week of Feb). I am somewhat inclined to slightly up my exposure by friday, but by trading is $2,500k increments...primarily to keep my exposure from getting to high (I'm already at around $14,900 original purchase price. I am hopeful that my positions will recover my monday and tuesday, in which case, I will sell and start shorting first week of february, which should be down.
Thinking over my last oversight (not checking the bigger trend of TNA and LBJ) which landed me in my current predicament (both TNA and LBJ positions considerably down although clear warnings were present), I've concluded that I need to have some kind of consolidated approach to forecast what the stock market is most likely to do next day or next few days. I've had this nagging interest in bulding a very simple forecasting / tracking engine, that also keeps track of economic indicators and foreign exchanges, that is able to give me, in a very simple and straight-forward way the most likely scenario for the upcoming day. For example something that would take european and asian market closures/changes, favorable or unfavorable econ. indicator release, day of the week, week of the month, 50-60 day MACD (moving average convergence divergence indicator...something i didn't pay attention to), current bear or bull market, and potentially a consolidation of misc economic indicators which shows the direction of economy, and gives me back the outlook for a day or the week, so that I can determine if I should be looking to short of buy with expectation to sell high.
As part of this I also want something that will trigger intra-day buy/sell alerts based on real-time price/volume data, because sitting and watching a monitor is not only time consuming but is also not very interesting. Because I have a very functional background in relational databases and business intel. I see many ways to approach data that will give me these answers. I also want to validate numerious 'predictions' from Stock Traders Almanac which I so often reference. It's an excellent source which I intend to use for many years to come, but it is printed only once for the entire year and so it cannot account for the cahnges that happen throughout.
I already downloaded and build a primitive database which picks up historic S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russel, and DJIA data. For the time being I'll upload daily data manually, or probably setup a quick downloaded which will pull it from the web. Will post my prediction engine updates as they develop
Thinking over my last oversight (not checking the bigger trend of TNA and LBJ) which landed me in my current predicament (both TNA and LBJ positions considerably down although clear warnings were present), I've concluded that I need to have some kind of consolidated approach to forecast what the stock market is most likely to do next day or next few days. I've had this nagging interest in bulding a very simple forecasting / tracking engine, that also keeps track of economic indicators and foreign exchanges, that is able to give me, in a very simple and straight-forward way the most likely scenario for the upcoming day. For example something that would take european and asian market closures/changes, favorable or unfavorable econ. indicator release, day of the week, week of the month, 50-60 day MACD (moving average convergence divergence indicator...something i didn't pay attention to), current bear or bull market, and potentially a consolidation of misc economic indicators which shows the direction of economy, and gives me back the outlook for a day or the week, so that I can determine if I should be looking to short of buy with expectation to sell high.
As part of this I also want something that will trigger intra-day buy/sell alerts based on real-time price/volume data, because sitting and watching a monitor is not only time consuming but is also not very interesting. Because I have a very functional background in relational databases and business intel. I see many ways to approach data that will give me these answers. I also want to validate numerious 'predictions' from Stock Traders Almanac which I so often reference. It's an excellent source which I intend to use for many years to come, but it is printed only once for the entire year and so it cannot account for the cahnges that happen throughout.
I already downloaded and build a primitive database which picks up historic S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russel, and DJIA data. For the time being I'll upload daily data manually, or probably setup a quick downloaded which will pull it from the web. Will post my prediction engine updates as they develop
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